Defying Exit Polls: Unpacking Nitish Kumar's Victory and Bihar's Journey to Governance

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According to the Election Commission of India (ECI), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surpassed the result of exit poll predictions just a few hours after the vote counting started. Interestingly, it even exceeded Amit Shah’s prediction of securing 160 seats.

NDA is currently leading the Bihar Assembly elections, and if the ECI data shows consistency, it could even beat its own 2010 record when it won 206 seats. 

The Factors That Bypassed Exit Poll Predictions

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured a victory in the Bihar elections 2025. This result completely overturned most of the exit poll forecasts. Nearly every major agency had predicted a clear edge for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan alliance. Some had forecasted a landslide win for the opposition with 139 to 161 seats. The actual results showed the NDA crossing the majority with 125 seats.

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The Mahagathbandhan earned 110 seats. One factor affecting the elections was the significant gap between male and female voter participation. Women voters registered a higher turnout than men. This demographic may have nurtured a constituency for the incumbent. Analysts noted that women saw the Chief Minister as someone who protected their interests.

From 'Jungle Raj' to 'Sushasan': A Look at Nitish Kumar's Governance Model

The term "Jungle Raj" was widely used to characterize the period of widespread crime and poor infrastructure. This was especially true during the rule of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rabri Devi (1990–2005). Critics called it a state of lawlessness, corruption, and pervasive fear. Nitish Kumar's rise to power was fundamentally based on his promise to end this era.

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He repeatedly invoked the image of the chaotic past. His governance model was presented as "Sushasan," or good governance, which primarily focused on order, improved security, and policies that were development-oriented. Kumar's administration basically institutionalized the memory of the past disorder. This strategy reduced a complex governance record to a simple binary.

He framed his leadership as essential for maintaining stability. Additionally, his government's focus on the development of infrastructure, law enforcement, and welfare schemes helped to cultivate his "Sushasan Babu" brand.