The Strategic Pipelines That Could Determine the Outcome of an Israel-Iran Conflict

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A critical war is unfolding across the Arabian Peninsula as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 1 March 2026 threatens to paralyze the global economy. With nearly 20 million barrels of oil and 20% of the world’s LNG supply blocked by the Iranian naval blockade, the stability of the West now rests on two engineering marvels: Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah line.

These corridors are the only remaining ‘escape hatches’ for energy. However, they are currently operating under a hail of drone strikes and unprecedented technical strain as they attempt to bypass the world's most dangerous chokepoint.

The Desperate Race to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz


The UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, 360 kilometers long, is the most important path that carries 1.5 million barrels a day. Engineers are now pushing the system to its physical limits to move more oil; however, this path is not perfectly safe. This week, drones hit oil tanks in Fujairah, and the work was halted for a short time. 

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Saudi Arabia also has a greater challenge with its ‘Petroline.’ This system can carry 7 million barrels per day to the Red Sea, but it has never worked this hard for a long time.

As reported by Anadolu Ajansı, rerouting exports does not eliminate risk, especially as the Red Sea itself remains a target for Houthi militants. If these pipes break, countries like India and the Philippines will have no fuel.

Will the Saudi and UAE Oil Pipelines Prevent a $150 Crude Oil Shock?


Even at 100% speed, the pipes only move 6.5 million barrels a day, leaving 13 million barrels stranded, which is 13% of the world’s oil needs. According to Goldman Sachs, oil could cost $150 a barrel by the end of March 2026, causing a global recession.

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Money is losing value quickly in the Philippines; it cannot afford to buy oil from other countries. The International Energy Agency noted that, "The logistics and supply chains needed to re-route and export substantial flows have not been robustly tested." This means energy costs will stay at record highs for at least six months. 

The established framework for moving oil through the Gulf is currently failing. Saudi Arabia and the UAE will likely have to spend billions to increase the capacity of oil pipes. This crisis can potentially cause a global recession.