Three ways the US mid-term elections will affect world politics

KEY POINTS

  • The globe is watching the U.S. midterm elections closely.
  • Countries are seeking clues about the future influence of U.S. democracy around the world, the durability of the Trump administration and the impact the midterms could have on the growing global populist movement.

Rarely, any country across the globe, which has no interest over America’s mid-term election. There are three main reasons behind their anxiety: how will they get affected on the competitive attractiveness of US democracy around the world, what indications they will give about the toughness of the Trump administration and what type of impact they will have on populist and nationalist momentum internationally.

The first issue concerning the US democracy is that allies are worried that the American model is losing grip, advancing the Chinese leaders to encourage their state capitalist model as a feasible option for developing and developed countries the same.

“If you’re worried about the United States, we have a lot of tools to run a successful foreign policy that is in our interests and can provide prosperity and security for our people. But our brand is not doing well internationally. There’s a reason why people are taking seriously China’s claim to have a new model. It’s because ours doesn’t look very good,” Stephen Hadley, former national security advisor to President George W. Bush, said to CNN.

When there was Cold War, Soviet officials could not make a trustworthy argument that their Communist system could bring social and economic progress. However, the more that the US politics is delayed in divergence and it becomes inefficient in dealing with core problems, then more striking strict models will appear.

Hadley clarified, “Our economy still is not producing sustained inclusive growth. Our politics are fractious. There is a long list of social problems, budgets, entitlement payments, immigration reform that we’ve known for years we have got to address and we haven’t done so. We’ve got to solve some of these questions that have been lingering.”

Then, both friends and opponents will be estimating what the midterm outcome says about the possibility of President Trump both finishing his first term and perhaps winning election for a further four years. That will make the decisions fast to employ the administration or “wait-it-out” on contentious issues including the rising US showdown with Iran ahead of next week’s new round of sanctions, current negotiations with North Korea, the future of Russian endorses and a host of trade conflicts and cooperation from China to Europe.

Lastly, the mid-terms could have persuaded on electoral politics globally. In that point of view, the vote isn’t just a referendum on President Trump’s first two years in office rather on the populist brand of politics he stands for. When there is a swing for populist before the election, it has pulled out the momentum since, because he has support from like-minded politicians around the world.

Not only Trump but also the whole US political and social environment has control over the globe. The Trump administration’s “American First” oratory and actions have empowered concurring leaders. These leaders have rallied regularly around anti-immigration politics in America whereas in Latin American it has been around anti-corruption campaigns. But on both continents, populist candidates have spoken of the Trump encouragement.

Voters have been fed uncertainties before by candidates who have gained from the inability over years of more conservative, established politicians to manage the growing concerns of their societies about the crash, among other problems, of fast globalization and technological advancement.

The anti-immigrant commitment among voters that Trump has played up before the mid-terms was what, in part, provided Brexit campaigners their drive ahead of Trump’s election. Since his presidency, such concerns have helped guide in the rise of Italy’s populist government. On the backside, anti-immigrant sentiments reinforced opposition to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, eventually prompting her decision this week to quit from the leader of her Christian Democratic party.

A few days back, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz told ORF radio that he would not sign a 34-page UN global migration compact whose main purposes to better organize the flow of refugees and characterize their rights. In July, excluding the United States, all 193 UN member nations, gave their support for the agreement. As the US turned down to support, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban also refused the compact.

Lately, however, in Latin American, the populist flow has appeared strongest. The Trump victory is quite clear after the rejection of Andrés Manuel López in the election as its president because of the Mexican political class and its inability to solve Mexican problems.

The impact was also clear in Brazil last week where the country elected the former army captain Jair Bolsonaro. He presented himself as an economically liberal and socially conservative law-and-order candidate to counter the extreme voter frustration with violence, corruption and unemployment. This fetched him the votes of Brazilians, including evangelicals, business people and extreme right-wingers.

“You can be sure Trump will have a great ally in the southern hemisphere,” Bolsonaro, Brazil first had told a rally of US-based supporters before the vote. “Trump is an example to me…and in many ways to Brazil.

Bolsonaro’s talk has marked a sharp smash with Brazil’s conventional, multi-polar foreign policy. As an example, the new president attacked China’s influence in Brazil, assaulted the leftist Venezuelan regime, said he would shift Brazil’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and declared to pull out of the Paris agreement on climate change (though he’s since changed course there).

Undoubtedly, most Americans this Tuesday will be watching whether President Trump’s Republican party can have a grasp on the Senate and the House of Representatives – and how it will influence the rest of his term and potential re-election.