Stock Market Today: Sensex Surges 595 Points to 84,466; Nifty 50 Tops 25,875

IT and auto stocks lead the rally, FIIs ease selling, and optimism grows over India-US trade talks

The Indian stock market is trading firmly in the green today, extending the positive momentum from the previous session. The benchmark Nifty 50 index stands at 25,875.80, up by 180.85 points (0.70%), while the BSE Sensex trades at 84,466.51, higher by 595.19 points (0.71%). Early trade in GIFT Nifty futures indicates a slightly cautious tone, hovering near 25,953, suggesting that the market may open flat to mildly lower but with a steady undertone.

Market Sentiment and Key Drivers

Investor sentiment remains positive, supported by a mix of domestic and global factors. Optimism surrounding an upcoming India-US trade agreement is adding strength to global risk appetite. Clarity in India’s political environment, particularly after exit polls showing stability for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, is also giving investors more confidence.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who have withdrawn about  Rs. 80,000 crore from major blue-chip stocks this year, are showing signs of slowing their selling. Analysts believe that the worst of the outflows may now be behind the market. 

In addition, valuations for large-cap stocks are returning to their long-term averages, and company earnings estimates are being revised upward. These developments together are helping the market stay on a firm footing.

Sector Trends and Major Gainers

The rally is broad-based, covering multiple sectors. Both mid-cap and small-cap indices are moving higher, up by 0.44% and 0.76% respectively, showing strong participation across market segments. The IT and automobile sectors are leading the charge. Among individual stocks, Asian Paints has surged by around 7%, supported by strong quarterly results and favorable demand trends. Tech Mahindra has gained nearly 3%, driven by renewed optimism in the IT services sector.

In the broader technology space, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is trading around 2.7% higher, outperforming several of its sector peers. The continued rise in IT stocks is being supported by the weakness in the rupee and growing optimism about demand recovery from key overseas markets such as the United States and Europe.

Technical Picture and Market Outlook

From a technical perspective, market experts identify 25,800 as a key short-term support level for the Nifty 50 index. Below that, another demand zone exists near 25,700–25,750, where buyers are expected to emerge if there is any correction. On the higher side, the immediate resistance level is seen around 26,000. A strong breakout above this level could open the door for further gains in the near term.

The current upward movement follows three consecutive sessions of gains, showing that market momentum remains intact. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are still in the neutral zone, suggesting that there is room for further upside before the market becomes overbought. Traders remain optimistic but are watching global signals carefully to gauge the next direction.

Challenges and Risks Ahead

Despite the encouraging tone, several risks remain in focus. So far in 2025, the Nifty has delivered only about a 5% return, making the Indian market one of the weaker performers among major global indices this year. This limited upside reflects the cautious stance of foreign investors, who have remained net sellers for much of the year due to high global interest rates and a stronger dollar.

Fresh FII outflows remain a concern, especially if global bond yields rise again or if the rupee weakens further. The market is also sensitive to external developments such as the health of the US economy, inflation data, and any escalation in geopolitical tensions. Domestically, valuations in the small-cap and mid-cap segments are stretched, and any correction in these areas could spill over into the broader market.

Moreover, while large-cap valuations are now more reasonable, investors are looking for clearer earnings visibility in key sectors like banking, infrastructure, and FMCG to sustain the rally. Market participants are also keeping an eye on crude oil prices, as rising oil costs could affect inflation and corporate profit margins.

What Investors Are Watching

Attention is now turning to several important global and domestic factors. The resolution of the recent US government shutdown has calmed investor nerves and provided temporary relief to risk assets worldwide. At the same time, developments in the India-US trade talks are being closely monitored, as any new agreements or policy announcements could impact sectors like technology, manufacturing, and exports.

Corporate earnings continue to play a major role in driving sentiment. Companies posting strong quarterly results and positive guidance are witnessing sharp upward moves, while those missing expectations are facing pressure. The upcoming earnings releases from large players in the banking and auto sectors will be crucial in shaping near-term direction.

Market observers are also tracking FII investment data closely. A shift from persistent selling to net buying could provide an additional boost to market momentum. On the macroeconomic front, key data such as inflation figures and industrial production numbers will influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) next policy move. If inflation remains under control, the RBI may hold rates steady, providing support for equity valuations.

Broader Global Context

Globally, investor sentiment remains mixed. While developed markets such as the US and Europe have stabilized after recent volatility, concerns persist about global growth and inflation. Asian peers like Japan and South Korea are also witnessing subdued trading as investors await fresh cues from central banks.

India continues to stand out as a relatively stable market due to its strong domestic consumption base, growing manufacturing footprint, and improving fiscal discipline. However, analysts caution that global capital flows remain fickle and could quickly shift in response to changes in US bond yields or geopolitical developments.

Economic Indicators and Future Outlook

Domestically, the Indian economy continues to display resilience. Industrial production growth remains steady, and the services sector is showing signs of renewed momentum. Inflation is hovering within the RBI’s target range, giving policymakers some room for flexibility. Government spending on infrastructure and housing projects is also expected to support corporate earnings in the coming quarters.

Looking ahead, the broader market outlook remains cautiously optimistic. If global conditions remain stable and domestic corporate earnings continue to grow, the Nifty could attempt to move beyond the 26,000 mark in the near term. However, volatility is likely to persist around key global events and data releases.

Final Thoughts

The Indian stock market is trading firmly in positive territory today, supported by global optimism, political clarity, and improving corporate performance. With the Nifty 50 above 25,850 and the Sensex near 84,466, market sentiment is clearly positive. While valuation concerns and external risks remain, the underlying tone suggests that investors are willing to buy on dips rather than exit positions.

As the trading session progresses, attention will remain on key global signals, foreign fund flows, and corporate earnings announcements. Overall, the market is holding a strong position, reflecting the confidence that India continues to offer long-term growth potential even in an uncertain global environment.