Stock Market Today: Sensex at 82,520, Nifty 50 at 25,318

Sensex hovers near 82,500, Nifty slips to 25,310. IT tumbles 2–4% after the US visa fee hike

The Indian stock market is trading under pressure today, with benchmark indices showing weakness through the session. The Sensex is moving in the range of 82,500 to 82,530 levels, slipping around 100 to 120 points, which is nearly 0.12 to 0.15 percent down. 

The Nifty 50 is also trading soft near 25,310 to 25,320 levels, losing around 10 to 20 points or about 0.10 to 0.15 percent. While the fall is not very deep, the market mood remains cautious, especially after a sudden policy change in the United States that directly impacts Indian technology companies.

Pressure on the IT Sector

The sharpest decline of the day comes from the IT sector. The Nifty IT index is down by nearly 2 to 4 percent in mid-session trade, dragging the broader market lower. Stocks of major IT companies like Infosys, TCS, and Wipro are among the top losers. The trigger for this sell-off is a new policy in the United States that has increased the one-time application fee for H-1B visas to $100,000. This has raised concerns because Indian IT firms rely heavily on H-1B visas to send professionals to work on US projects. The sudden rise in cost creates uncertainty for ongoing and upcoming contracts, forcing investors to sell shares of IT firms.

Impact of Global Factors

Alongside the visa fee hike, global factors are adding pressure to Indian equities. The US dollar is strengthening, and risk appetite across international markets is weakening. As a result, the Indian rupee is trading weak at around 88.16 per dollar. A weak rupee usually supports IT exporters, but the negative sentiment around visas is overwhelming that advantage today. At the same time, higher US bond yields and worries about the Federal Reserve’s next steps are also dampening investor mood.

Outflow of Foreign Money

Foreign Portfolio Investors continue to reduce their exposure to Indian markets. In September alone, FPIs have sold shares worth nearly 7,945 crore rupees. This takes the total net outflow for the year so far to about 1.38 lakh crore rupees. Persistent foreign selling creates pressure on domestic indices because it indicates a lack of confidence among global investors. With the rupee already under strain, these outflows increase the pressure on the currency as well.

Sector Performance Beyond IT

While the IT pack is in deep red, other sectors are showing some resilience. Banking, energy, real estate, and auto shares are holding up better and limiting the overall damage. Large private sector banks and select auto stocks are trading with modest gains. Realty shares are also firm, supported by a healthy demand outlook in the property market. Energy stocks are benefiting from stable crude oil prices and expectations of improving margins. However, mid-cap and small-cap stocks are trading more cautiously, with investors preferring safety in large-cap names amid global uncertainty.

Rise in Market Volatility

Investor nervousness is visible in the movement of volatility indicators. The India VIX, which reflects expected short-term volatility, has surged by nearly 5 percent during the day. A rising VIX usually signals fear among market participants, as traders hedge their positions to protect against sudden swings. Rising volatility suggests that the market could see sharper movements in the coming sessions, either on the upside or downside, depending on news flow.

Bond Market and Yields

Apart from equities, the bond market also reflects some nervousness. Yields on government securities have inched higher, with the 10-year benchmark yield rising to about 6.5028 percent compared to the previous close of 6.4885 percent. Rising yields typically mean that investors expect higher borrowing costs ahead or are moving money into safer assets, which again reduces liquidity for equities.

Technical View on the Market

From a technical perspective, both Sensex and Nifty are showing signs of weakness after last week’s decline. On the previous trading day, the Sensex had fallen by around 387 points, a loss of 0.47 percent, while the Nifty had slipped by about 96 points, or 0.38 percent. 

Analysts highlight that the immediate support zone for Nifty lies between 25,000 and 25,200, while resistance can be seen near 25,500 to 25,670. This means that as long as Nifty stays above 25,000, chances of a bounce remain, but breaking below that could trigger further selling.

Critical Reversal Window

Market experts are also pointing towards an important reversal window between September 22 and 24. Such time frames are closely tracked by traders who believe that the market often changes its short-term trend during these periods. Whether the indices rebound from current levels or fall deeper could be determined within these critical sessions.

Currency Market Influence

The rupee remains a key driver for equity sentiment. At 88.16 per dollar, the currency is under clear pressure. The weakness comes not only from foreign outflows but also from broad dollar strength worldwide. Investors are watching upcoming speeches from US Federal Reserve officials for clues on interest rates. Any indication of tighter policy in the US may push the dollar higher and weaken the rupee further, adding to equity market worries.

Global Market Trends

Asian markets are trading mixed today, with some indices moving higher and others slipping lower. This uneven performance adds to the uncertainty in Indian equities. Oil and commodity markets are also being closely tracked. Stable crude oil prices are helping energy and auto shares in India, but any sudden rise in oil could hurt the domestic economy by increasing import costs.

Key Risks for Investors

The biggest risk for Indian equities at the moment is the new US visa policy. If the 100,000-dollar fee per H-1B visa remains unchanged, it could hurt the earnings of Indian IT companies over time. Another concern is the persistent selling by foreign investors, which shows a lack of confidence. If global liquidity remains tight, foreign funds may continue to pull money out. Currency weakness is another factor that can add to inflationary pressure in the domestic economy. Rising bond yields, both in India and globally, can also push borrowing costs higher and weigh on valuations.

Possible Positive Triggers

Despite the challenges, some potential positive triggers can support the market. Reports suggest that the US visa fee hike applies only to new H-1B applications and not to ongoing projects. If this is confirmed, the immediate impact on Indian IT firms may be less severe than feared. Strong corporate earnings in sectors like banking, auto, and energy could also help offset IT weakness. Domestic reforms and policy measures from the government may bring back investor confidence. Any improvement in trade agreements or foreign investment deals could also act as a catalyst for recovery.

Market Mood and Outlook

The overall mood in the stock market today is cautious. Traders are reacting sharply to negative news and are quick to book profits in volatile sectors. At the same time, long-term investors appear to be holding positions in banks, auto, and energy stocks, where fundamentals remain relatively strong. The next two sessions are crucial, as they fall within the identified reversal window. The direction the market takes will depend on how investors digest the visa policy news, the rupee movement, and foreign investor flows.

Final Thoughts

The Indian stock market is facing pressure in today’s trade, largely due to weakness in the IT sector after the US raised H-1B visa application fees to $100,000. Benchmark indices are lower, though losses are limited by strength in banks, auto, and energy shares. Rising volatility, foreign outflows of nearly 7,945 crore rupees this month, and a weak rupee at 88.16 per dollar add to the cautious tone. With the Nifty hovering around 25,310 to 25,320 and the Sensex near 82,500, traders are watching whether support at 25,000 holds. The outcome of the next two days of trade could decide if the market stages a recovery or slips further.