Is the US Going Through a Hiring Recession? What it Means for Indians

The US Hiring Recession Has The Potential To Impact Indian Job Market 

A 28-year-old just lost his job and has been unable to find one for almost a year. The employee just got laid off in the name of ‘cost-cutting.’ Well, this is one of the news pieces that you might have been reading for the past few months. However, contrary to this, the Indian job market is reportedly projected to experience 11% hiring growth in 2026. So, what’s the actual hiring scenario right now?  Here is a detailed overview of the job market in correlation with India and the US. 

India and US: An Economic Seesaw

The tech-driven, AI, and manufacturing sectors are experiencing a surge in the number of global capability centres (GCCs). However, the hiring sector, especially in India, is still facing mass firings and even a scarcity of job opportunities. The loophole? About 16 crore jobs were added in the last six years, but a ‘hiring filter’ has been added. This filter prioritizes specialized skill sets over generic skill sets. These includes:

• Artificial Intelligence
• Cybersecurity
• Cloud Computing
• Data Analytics
• Data Science 
   

Recent hiring trends in India are heavily dominated by AI, digital transformation, and a shift towards skills-based hiring over traditional degrees, with significant growth in global capability centres (GCCs) and the manufacturing sector. While IT hiring has slowed, demand remains high for specialized roles in cities such as Pune, Hyderabad, and Bangalore.

As US hiring continues to face a recession, it poses a threat to the Indian job market. The recession can be associated with reduced job openings in early 2026. This directly threatens India’s IT, tech, and export-driven sectors. The most affected areas include:

• Project Demand
• Reduced Venture Capital

Indian Job Market: Core Impact 

Given below are some of the key hiring areas expected to seThe Indian job market is likely to shift toward Agritech, IT, and other tech sectors. The rising trends in Artificial Intelligence and other technologies have raised a demand for tech experts.  e a rise in demand in the future:

IT and Tech Services: Reportedly, 60% of India's IT revenue originates in the US. However, the IT spending and hiring have reduced in the US. These eventually lead to margin pressure,  project delays, and potential layoffs in Indian firms like Infosys and TCS.

Labor Market: Tech layoffs in the US have created uncertainty among Indian professionals about the availability of their H-1B visas. There have been tightened visa renewals, and pressure to return due to the increased number of people facing layoffs. Many YouTube videos have been in support of these ‘mass visa denial’ for unemployed Indian workers. 

Startups and Seed Funding: The US hiring slowdown has resulted in reduced funding from US venture capital. Thus, it impacts Indian startups in the edtech and fintech industries.

Financial Markets: There have been FII outflows due to the increased global risk aversion. This has brought selling pressure on Indian stock indices.

Export Disruption: The textiles, automobiles, and gems industries have been heavily dependent on US demand. With the hiring recession, these sectors could be highly affected by a low demand for supply. 

The unemployment rate could bounce back towards a half-century low of 3.8% in the next few years. Around 95% unemployment rate will stay at 4% or can go beyond it. These expectations are associated with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to upgrade and stabilise the job market. Those cuts may be helping prevent more serious damage, according to economists’ forecasts, but they’re not reigniting hiring. Furthermore, several economists explain that, as of now, the U.S. economy has a strong chance of sidestepping a recession again. A little more than 1 in 4 ( about 28%) is the average odds of the U.S. economy entering a downturn in 2026.

The Way Ahead

While IT services have slowed to around 24% job openings. On the other hand, other sectors like automotive, manufacturing, and renewable energy are witnessing major growth. Another key trend around the job market is the preferred mode of working. 

India's GCC ecosystem can reach $100 billion by 2030. This expanding rate has the potential to employ about 25 lakh professionals. GCCs are no longer limited to back offices. Now, they are heavily invested in building cybersecurity, platform engineering, tech products, and AI solutions for global markets. Other market research shows that fresher hiring is seeing a steady rise.  In FY 2026, top IT firms like Infosys, TCS, HCLTech, and Wipro are expected to onboard 82,000 graduates. Thus, highlighting a bounce-back in entry-level job demand.

Hybrid work models' flexibility remains a popular working mode among employees. Over 60% of candidates prefer hybrid jobs or remote jobs. However, strong domestic demand and resilience in sectors like IT services continue to be a sign of relief. 

What needs to be done

So, how do we avoid getting heavily impacted by the current unstable job scenario? Well, the most important thing you can do is to upgrade yourself. The upgrade should not only focus on getting academic degrees but also on upskilling yourself with new professional courses. It's advisable that you try to incorporate the following steps:

Do not fear AI: Artificial intelligence is the future. Learn to use and include tools like data analysis,  GenAI, and automation in your daily workflow. This not only helps you understand the new-age tech but also helps you to increase productivity at work. 

Go for High-Demand Fields: You should invest in skills that will not be impacted by any form of recession. Apply for jobs in cloud computing, robotics, and cybersecurity. You can also go for the fintech risk, healthcare, compliance,e and renewable energy sectors. 

Try Building a "Portfolio Career": Do not rely solely on one employer. Explore freelancing, consulting, or short-term contract work to supplement your income.

Monetize Your Hobbies and Skills: Consider part-time consulting, teaching, or starting a small online business to create additional, independent income streams.

Make a strong Portfolio: Try creating visible proof of your work. Highlight on building work dashboards, case studies, and GitHub repos. This helps to keep you on the radar of your targeted job sectors and HR managers. This also helps to create your value in front of your potential employers.

Improve Network and Connections with Industrialists: Be active on job platforms. You need to connect with recruiters, peers, and industry leaders actively. The current hiring scenario mostly runs on referrals. Referrals are the best approachable way to land a job during economic ups and downs.

To conclude, you need to stay updated, upskilled and keep diversifying your portfolio. Also, be prepared to face change and be flexible enough to keep up with the changes.