Can Russia Weather the Storm of US Tariffs on Indian Oil Imports?

India Faces Fresh US Tariffs Over Its Reliance on Russian Oil: Can Russia Withstand Washington’s Pressure or Will New Delhi Diversify Further?

The energy relationship between India and Russia is under serious strain. Washington has signaled fresh penalties on New Delhi for continuing Russian oil imports. President Donald Trump has announced a new 25 % tariff on India as reported by Reuters. The levy targets crude purchases from Moscow and will take effect on August 27.

India’s envoy to Russia, Vinay Kumar, has dismissed the US pressure in a report to First Post. He called the move ‘unfair, unreasonable and unjustified’ in an interview with TASS. Kumar stressed that India’s duty is to secure energy for 1.4 billion people. He noted that purchases from Russia have helped stabilize global oil markets.

Kumar explained that energy trade operates on commercial logic rather than politics. He said Indian companies would buy from the supplier offering the best deal. His defiant remarks highlight India’s strategy of balancing affordability with security. 

India’s Energy Dependence

India imports nearly 85 % of its crude oil requirements. This reliance fuels both domestic demand and a large refining sector. The country is now the third-largest oil consumer in the world. It also stands as the second-largest crude importer globally.

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, India’s suppliers looked very different. Iraq supplied 24%, Saudi Arabia 16%, and the United States 10%. Russia accounted for only two % of New Delhi’s crude imports then.

That picture changed dramatically after Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022. Russian seaborne crude has since become India’s biggest energy source. Russia now accounts for about 35 % of India’s overall oil imports.

Russian Oil: India’s Top Source

India imported 2.15 million barrels of Russian crude per day in 2023. That figure represented the highest level since May of that year. Reports suggest India has spent Rs 132 billion on Russian oil since early 2022. This volume has positioned Russia firmly at the top of India’s supplier list.

The surge has drawn criticism from Washington. US officials argue that Russian crude sales fund the Ukraine war. India has consistently rejected this view, defending its right to pursue energy security.

Also Read: Is PM Modi Ignoring Trump’s Calls? Here’s the Complete Truth

Other Major Suppliers

According to First Post, Iraq remains a critical supplier for India after Russia. In May 2023, India bought 839,000 barrels daily from Baghdad. Exports from Iraq to India in 2024 totaled $29.58 billion. Crude made up $28.6 billion, while refined products added $1.77 billion.

Saudi Arabia also plays an essential role in India’s energy mix. In fiscal 2025, India imported 14 % of its crude from the Kingdom. Average imports reached 640,000 barrels per day during that year.

The United Arab Emirates continues to contribute around 10 % of India’s oil. In 2024, India purchased $3.2 billion worth of crude from the UAE. This was lower than the $9.35 billion bought during the same period in 2023. The United States has also emerged as a steady supplier. Washington accounts for about five % of India’s oil imports. Meanwhile, Nigeria and Angola supply around two % each.

Diversifying Beyond Russia

India has worked to spread its oil imports across more than 40 nations. Energy Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has highlighted new flows from Guyana, Brazil, and Canada. Refiners in India are already sourcing barrels from the Middle East and West Africa. Azerbaijan has also become part of this diversification push.

Despite the expansion of suppliers, price remains the critical factor. Experts agree that cost efficiency drives India’s purchasing strategy. Vinay Kumar’s remarks underline the economic logic behind oil imports.

Political and Economic Fallout

The US decision to raise tariffs on Indian goods has increased tension. Total duties on some Indian exports will now reach 50 %. Many in New Delhi see the action as discriminatory and politically motivated. The External Affairs Ministry has already termed the move ‘extremely unfortunate.’

India argues that many nations continue to buy Russian oil for their own interests. Officials in Moscow have also criticized Washington’s punitive approach. They suggested Indian goods affected by tariffs could find markets in Russia. The growing standoff may complicate ties between two key democracies. It also highlights the fragility of global energy politics in the post-Ukraine era.

Can Russia Handle the Shift?

The crucial question remains whether Russia can sustain its dominant role. India’s loyalty will ultimately hinge on prices and supply stability. If tariffs significantly alter cost equations, New Delhi may recalibrate purchases. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the US are well-placed to fill potential gaps.

Still, Russian oil has been available at discounts since 2022. That advantage may help Moscow retain Indian buyers despite political heat. For Russia, losing Indian demand would dent revenues but not end exports. China has already scaled up its orders of discounted Russian crude.

Also Read: Trump Targets India Over Russian Oil Again: Tariffs, Threats, and a Test of Global Power Play 

Conclusion

The US tariffs on Indian goods have added a new layer of strain. India continues to prioritize affordable crude and supply security over political dictates. Russia remains its top supplier, though rivals are ready to expand deliveries. The outcome will depend on whether price advantages outweigh political penalties. For now, India insists it will buy wherever it finds the best deal.