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The recession has a domino effect in today’s economy as reports of job losses, decelerating demand and the liquidity crisis trickled in last week that slows down stock markets. Recessions don’t just come out of nowhere but most economic indicators this year have moved relentlessly towards it. And the U.S. stock market just suffered its worst one-day drop of 2019, and bond markets are making investors jittery across the world.

The U.S. economy has been on a winning line for over a decade, but economists are now believing a recession sooner or later and they see signs the economy is already sputtering. The US economy, for now, remains on solid ground, but a pullback in consumer spending, escalation of the trade war with China, diminutive inflation, and a global slowdown could set off a downturn.

Economists are also seeing some crucial signs that can impede the global economy, including consumers, start to lose confidence, interest rates get weird, unemployment goes higher, factories become quieter, sales of new cars decelerating, stocks go on a losing streak, credit cards debt and late payments rise, and inflation heats up.

World’s Biggest Economies are At Risk

According to the reports, the five biggest economies are at risk of recession. Germany, Britain, Italy, Brazil, and Mexico each rank among the world's largest 20 economies. Of which, the British economy shrunk in the second quarter, and growth flatlined in Italy. Recently published data further demonstrated that Germany's economy, the world's fourth-largest economy, contracted in the three months to June. The country relies heavily on exporters that sell a disproportionate amount of goods to China and the United States, and lackluster global auto sales have also hit its car market.

On the other side, Mexico just dodged a recession, but also the country’s economy is expected to remain weak this year. And Brazil slipped into recession in the second quarter. The data also indicate that Singapore and Hong Kong, which are smaller but still serve as vital hubs for finance and trade, are also suffering recession.

Looking at these recessions in the global economy, last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global growth this year to 3.2%, which is the weakest rate of expansion since 2009. It also lowered its expectations for 2020 to 3.5%.

Young College Graduates Likely to lose Jobs First in a Recession

There aren’t any predictions about how severe an economic downturn might be, and which workers are most at risk of a job cut. But taking historical data in context will be useful to envisage this trend.

Several economists and institutes see young college graduates will likely be the first to have pink slips in the next recession. According to Brookings Institution economist Harry Holzer, newer college graduates are among the first to be targeted by employers in a recession, because they are the most marginal people in the workforce, having just entered it.

Also, Hamilton Project policy director Ryan Nunn says that people who have recently entered the labor market are most vulnerable to an economic shock, by comparison to people who are more established in their careers.