Odds that Latin America’s largest economy contracted within the half-moon multiplied once March industrial production fell by over double analysts’ expectations.

Brazil’s output tumbled 1.3 percent in March, its worst reading in six months, the national statistics bureau reported Friday. In 12 months through March, industrial production contracted for the primary time since 2017.

The Brazilian economy has suffered from an unsatisfying recovery since rising from a deep recession 2 years alone. Record-low interest rates haven’t provided the awaited boost to the economic sector, that since 2017 hasn’t once announced consecutive months of growth. With the government fiscally strapped, a wave of private-sector investment is required to accelerate growth, but confidence has wavered since President Jair Bolsonaro assumed power. Exports to Argentina also are down because the neighboring country sinks into recession.

Brazil’s largest private-sector banks cut their estimates for the economy in the aftermath of the data. Itau now expects the gross domestic product to contract 0.2 percent in the half-moon from the previous period, whereas Bradesco sees it shrinking 0.1 percent.

The March industry data “definitely will increase the risk” gross domestic product contracted in the initial 3 months of the year, asserted Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs’ chief America economist. Edward Glossop, Latin America economist at Capital political economy, another that the first-quarter knowledge is “likely to be ugly” and it seems the economy could have announced a tiny low contraction.

Swap rates fell across the board. Interest paid on the contract maturing in Jan 2020 born four basis points in afternoon trade, because the weak economy suggests no scope for inflationary pressures.

The March plunge in industrial production was junction rectifier by a 2 percent decline in output of trade goods, notably thanks to a drop by vehicles as Argentina imports fewer cars.

The stubborn, double-digit state has additionally unbroken domestic demand low, clogging production, in keeping with Flavio Serrano, a chief social scientist at Haitong in port.

From a similar month a year earlier, overall output fell 6.1 percent, the foremost since last May’s truck driver strike ground the economy to a halt. The impact of the Brumadinho dam disaster in Jan continues to weigh down the mining sector, with output from extractive industries down 14 percent year-on-year, in keeping with Andre Macedo, UN agency coordinates the survey.